On Friday (December 12th) in Asian trading, US crude oil prices rebounded briefly, currently trading around $58.1 per barrel. In recent months, oil prices have been consolidating within a narrow range. Despite potential supply risks such as Ukraine's attack on Russian energy infrastructure and US actions against Venezuela, the market has not experienced significant volatility. This reflects a decline in investor sensitivity to geopolitical events, as the factors driving oil price movements are gradually shifting from "short-term risks" to "medium- to long-term supply and demand structures."

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) further reinforced the market's perception of a loose supply environment in its latest monthly report. The report shows that in the past month, global supply remained higher than demand. Although production in Russia and Venezuela declined, overall supply growth significantly outpaced demand growth. Global inventories also continued to accumulate, averaging 1.2 million barrels per day over the first ten months, indicating that fundamental pressures on the oil market persist. Even though geopolitical factors occasionally boost market sentiment, such effects are usually unsustainable given the continued ample supply.

From a daily chart perspective, WTI crude oil prices have not only broken through key support levels, but short-term moving averages have also formed a clear downward alignment, indicating that bearish forces are dominating the market. Recent consecutive days of downward pressure on the price chart further confirm that the market has entered a new downward trend from its previous high-level consolidation phase. The MACD indicator has fallen back below the zero line and shows signs of expanding green bars, indicating that momentum is shifting towards the bears.

Crude oil's short-term (1-hour) trend has resumed its downward trajectory and continues to make new lows. The moving average system is suppressing oil prices with a bearish alignment, and the short-term objective trend is downward. The MACD indicator has formed a golden cross below the zero line and is widening upwards, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum. It is expected that crude oil will continue to decline today, targeting the strong medium-term support level of 56. Today: Buy at 58.30, stop loss: 59.01, target 56.30.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.