In Asian trading on Friday (September 12th), US crude oil traded around $62.20 per barrel. Oil prices fell over 2% on Thursday as concerns about potentially weakening US demand and widespread oversupply offset the threat to production from the Middle East conflict and the war in Ukraine. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its monthly report that global supply growth in 2025 will be faster than expected, driven by OPEC+'s planned production increase. At its latest meeting, OPEC+ decided to further increase its production quota starting in October, while Saudi Arabia has made clear its intention to regain market share through increased production.

The IEA noted that Russia, the world's second-largest crude oil producer, saw its revenue from crude oil and oil products in August fall to one of its lowest levels since the outbreak of the Ukrainian conflict. Market sources also reported that Russia plans to reduce ESPO crude oil exports from the Far Eastern port of Kozmino to 4 million tons (approximately 1 million barrels per day) in September, down from 4.2 million tons in August. In the United States, consumer prices saw their largest increase in seven months in August, and initial unemployment claims unexpectedly rose. Market expectations are that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week to stimulate growth, which could indirectly benefit future crude oil demand.

From a daily perspective, crude oil prices have formed a narrow range bottom after consecutive negative candlestick patterns. Prices have repeatedly crossed the moving average, indicating a medium-term volatile pattern. On Monday, prices briefly fell below the lower limit of the range, but a sustained and robust downward trend has yet to form. Crude oil is expected to maintain a weak, volatile, and consolidative pattern in the medium term.

The short-term upward trend in crude oil (1H) has ended, with prices reversing and falling back below 62. The moving averages are in a bearish configuration, indicating a downward trend in the short term. The MACD indicator is pointing downward below the zero axis, indicating strong bearish momentum. The early trading session remains in a downward trend, with prices hitting new lows. It is expected that crude oil will continue to fall today, with limited room for growth. Today: short at 62.00, stop loss at 62.40, target at 61.00.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.