After a nearly 3% increase last week, oil prices remained stable at the start of the week on Monday (August 25th). Brent crude oil hovered around $68 per barrel, while WTI remained above $63. Market focus was on the risk of tight supply and the impact of Federal Reserve policy expectations on risky assets. Friction between the United States and India exacerbated market concerns. The United States threatened to raise tariffs on all imports from India from 25% to 50% in retaliation for continued purchases of Russian crude oil. Despite this, Indian diplomats stated that local refineries would continue to purchase Moscow's crude oil, demonstrating that its energy supply strategy would not be easily altered.

Overall, the market will continue to be driven by policy and geopolitical factors in the short term, rather than simply by supply and demand. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut provided downside protection for oil prices, but OPEC's production increase plans and potential demand weakness continued to weigh on the medium-term outlook.

From a daily perspective, crude oil prices have formed a narrow range bottom after consecutive negative candlestick patterns. Oil prices have gradually crossed smaller moving averages, but the overall trend remains negative, indicating a downward medium-term trend. From a momentum perspective, the MACD indicator formed a golden cross below the zero axis, signaling a gradual weakening of downward momentum. It is expected that crude oil will likely remain downward in the medium term.

Crude oil experienced a sharp decline in the short term (1H) before ultimately finding support and rising to a new high near 63.70. The moving average system supports an upward trend in oil prices, indicating an upward trend in the short term. Oil prices consolidated within a narrow range early in the session, and the upward trend is expected to continue. Overall, today's trading strategy for crude oil is to primarily buy on dips, supplemented by shorting on rebounds. Focus on resistance at 65.0-66.0 in the short term, and support at 62.5-61.5 on the downside.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.