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【Bitop Exchange Market Observation】The Fed's decision is coming, pay attention to economic forecasts and dot plots, is there still a downside risk to gold prices?

2024年12月18日发布


In the early Asian session on Wednesday (December 18), spot gold hovered at a low level in the past week, currently trading around $2,645.93 per ounce. Gold prices were slightly under pressure on Tuesday, as data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that retail sales in November increased by 0.7% month-on-month, the highest since September, higher than the market's expected growth of 0.5%, reinforcing that the Fed may suspend interest rate cuts in January, although there are still some bargain hunting to support gold prices.

 

In addition, the Fed's interest rate meeting has already started on Tuesday this week. This is the Fed's last policy meeting this year. Analysts believe that the Fed may release a more gradual interest rate cut signal. The survey shows that U.S. Treasury yields are expected to rise for the second consecutive month.

 

From the daily spot gold market, although the gold price once broke through the high point of last month last week, it was a pity that it still failed to successfully hold the 2700 mark at the end of the week, which led to the current retreat to below the 2650 line. At present, the short-term moving average group and MACD indicators are in a deadlock, which shows that the short-term long and short directions are not clear, so it is recommended to wait for the announcement of the Fed's interest rate decision before following up.

 

From the 4-hour spot gold market, after the previous high and fall, the gold price trend this week is more of a shock callback rhythm, but in fact the space is not particularly large, because the dense support band below is still relatively obvious, the short-term moving average group currently provides a certain amount of downward pressure, and the MACD indicator is also below the 0 axis, so in terms of operation, it is temporarily maintained before the decision to sell at highs.

 

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.