On Monday (April 27) in early Asian trading, spot gold opened below $4700/oz, and may test the $4650/oz level during the day, as Iran's stance is more hardline than in the first round of negotiations, stating that it will not accept negotiations under pressure or a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 100%, and the probability of a rate hike this year has increased.

According to Pakistani government sources, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi arrived in Islamabad to discuss restarting peace talks, but will not meet with US negotiators; meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon extended their ceasefire agreement for three weeks. The market currently views the prospect of a peace agreement as a net positive, and oil prices have also fallen. Last week, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 1.5%, and the dollar rose for the first time in three weeks, both increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.

From the daily chart of spot gold, a short-term bearish pattern has been established. The 24-day and 38-day moving averages have formed a death cross, with the price breaking below the moving average system support. The MACD indicator's fast and slow lines have also formed a death cross above the zero line, and the green momentum bars continue to expand, clearly indicating a bearish signal. Currently, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and the price is oscillating narrowly around the middle band. The probability of gold breaking out in a one-sided trend this week is gradually increasing, and gold is expected to further open up downside potential.

Looking at the 4-hour chart for spot gold, although the price of gold rebounded strongly last week, it ultimately fell back due to the stabilization of the US dollar index, and re-failed to hold the key 4700 level. This means that the short-term battle between bulls and bears is not yet over. At present, the moving average group is slightly downward, which may exert some pressure in the future. The MACD indicator is also below the zero line, but the close proximity of the two lines has limited help. The recommended trading strategy is to maintain a strategy of buying low and selling high. Resistance: 4730-4740-4750; Support: 4715-4705-4690.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.