The global energy market experienced significant volatility this week, primarily driven by the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, which has led to risks of disruption in critical crude oil transport channels. Market trading data indicates that during Friday's Asian trading session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices rose to near $95, continuing their recent strong upward momentum. Since the outbreak of the relevant conflict, U.S. crude oil prices have accumulated a gain of over 40%, marking one of the most drastic rallies in the energy market in recent years.

According to market surveys, energy analysis agencies believe the current situation may be triggering one of the largest supply shocks in the history of the global crude oil market. The core of market concern lies in the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most vital energy transport chokepoint. Connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, this strait is the primary channel for Middle East crude exports to enter the international market, undertaking essential transport functions for global seaborne crude trade. Industry data shows that the Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport; once shipping is obstructed, the global energy supply chain would face an immediate impact.

Recent developments have further reinforced market expectations regarding supply risks. Iran's new Supreme Leader stated in a public declaration that closing the Strait of Hormuz would be viewed as an important tool to pressure adversaries, and warned that regional military facilities could become targets. This statement rapidly intensified market fears of long-term channel blockage, prompting energy traders to increase risk premiums and causing crude prices to climb quickly.

Meanwhile, major global energy consumers have begun taking measures to mitigate potential supply shocks. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that to alleviate the conflict's impact on the global economy, member countries may coordinate the release of approximately 400 million barrels of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). This scale is considered likely to be one of the largest strategic reserve release actions in history. By adding temporary supply to the market, this move aims to cushion the sharp rise in energy prices and stabilize market expectations.

Although the SPR release may provide some buffer to the market in the short term, energy traders generally believe this measure is difficult to fully offset the impact of transport disruptions. On one hand, reserve releases are phased measures, and their impact on supply usually has time limits; on the other hand, if shipping risks persist, the global market may still face structural supply tightness.

Looking at market sentiment, energy, shipping, and commodity markets have all clearly reflected rising risk-aversion sentiment. Energy traders have begun re-evaluating global supply security, while funds and institutional investors are also increasing their allocation to energy assets. At the same time, high oil prices have a potential impact on global inflation expectations, which may further influence the monetary policy paths of central banks.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that WTI crude prices have formed a clear unilateral upward structure over the past few weeks. Prices have broken through the previous key resistance area of $90 and moved up rapidly; the current short-term trend remains strong. Momentum indicators show that bullish forces still dominate. The short-term key support area is located near $92; if this area holds firm, oil prices may continue to test the important psychological barriers of $98 to $100.

Overall, the core driving factor of the current energy market remains supply security risk, rather than traditional supply-demand cycle changes. As long as uncertainty regarding key transport channels exists, the risk premium on crude oil prices will be difficult to dissipate quickly.

Summary

The current crude oil market is in a typical phase driven by geopolitical risks, with price increases stemming mainly from supply security concerns rather than demand growth. Historically, once risks of disruption appear in key energy transport channels, the market tends to rapidly price in high risk premiums. Although the International Energy Agency's plan to release strategic reserves may alleviate market tension in the short term, this measure is more of a temporary intervention. If shipping risks persist, global energy supply may remain tight, and oil prices could continue to fluctuate at high levels or even rise further in the coming period.

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