On Friday (November 14th), US crude oil traded around $58.89 per barrel. Oil prices held steady on Wednesday, with the market weighing continued concerns about a global supply glut against potential supply disruptions from sanctions on Russia's Lukoil.

Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that crude oil inventories unexpectedly surged by 6.4 million barrels last week, far exceeding the expected 1.96 million barrels. Gasoline and distillate fuel inventories both declined less than expected. OPEC predicts that global oil supply will slightly exceed demand in 2026. The International Energy Agency raised its global oil supply growth forecasts for this year and next in its latest monthly report. Although geopolitical factors provided some support, the deteriorating trend in supply and demand fundamentals continues to dominate market sentiment. Investors will continue to focus on the actual impact of the upcoming Russian oil sanctions and whether OPEC+ will adjust its production policy accordingly.

From a daily chart perspective, and specifically at a local level, crude oil is currently in a secondary consolidation phase. The previous trading day's candlestick closed with a large bearish candle, engulfing the gains of the previous three trading days. However, the secondary consolidation pattern remains unchanged. The MACD indicator is below the zero line, indicating that bullish momentum still needs further accumulation. It is expected that crude oil will find support at its medium-term lows and then rebound.

In the short term (1H), crude oil is consolidating at low levels, with an overall secondary consolidation pattern. Based on the alternation of primary and secondary consolidation patterns, the subjective trend is downward. Oil prices are repeatedly crossing the moving average system, indicating an objective consolidation pattern. The MACD indicator is below the zero line, suggesting that bearish momentum is dominant. It is expected that crude oil will likely continue its downward trend today. Today's strategy: Short at 59.50, stop loss at 60.00, target 58.00.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.